Edwards endorses Obama

John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama today. His endorsement is one of the most coveted out of all democrats. Why? Because he was running as the backer of the "working class white voters" before Hillary Clinton seized on this demographic. In fact, Edwards got a non-trivial 7% of the vote in WV (he dropped out of the race in Feb but remained on the ballot).



With him standing behind Obama, he brings a consituency to the campaign that they probably don't even need to beat McCain, but it will help in certain states, such as NC, VA, OH, PA, and others.



Weeks ago it was expected that Edwards would endorse Clinton, but he knows a losing bet when he sees one. This pickup should also help Obama in Kentucky, which feels like an Edwards state.

Bob Barr - First Thoughts on his LP Run

Bob Barr just threw in his hat in the (crowded) Libertarian Party race. Our candidate in 2004 was embarrassing (Michael Badnarik, not even his mother would vote for him). Ron Paul ran for the LP way back in the 80s. Barr will go toe-to-toe with Mike Gravel, formerly running as a democrat, and the other weirdos the LP fields every year.

Barr is the biggest name recognition we’ve had for a while. He is a former Congressman for Georgia, and made a guest appearance in Borat (he was seen eating cheese and almost threw up). I’m not really sure what to make of Barr. He is the guy who really pushed impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton, authored the Defense of Marriage Act (a gay bashing bill), strongly supported the War on Drugs, and voted for the USA PATRIOT Act. He was even against medical marijuana.

For him to join the LP is absurd. But he did join the LP 2 years ago and is immediately the front runner. In a way, he is like a George W Bush reborn as a Ron Paul.

While he will not be getting my vote, I think that he may do well enough to give Obama the win. McCain only got 75% of the vote in PA and around the same in IN. Barr could function as a Ross Perot / Ralph Nader and eat up just enough of the angry Republican vote (Dems won’t vote for him with such a good candidate like Obama) to give the dems the win in some key swing states.  

You can visit his website here: http://www.bobbarr2008.com/

He is collecting donations now and has a neat live counter, just like Ron Paul did for a while.

Bob Barr may not be the perfect LP candidate, but let's face it, John McCain is a nightmare and I'd much rather cast a vote for Barr than McCain, if I had to pick between the two.  It's also refreshing to see the LP have the potential to have a non-loon running for them.

Full disclosure: I am a card carrying member of the Libertarian Party, but have not paid dues for many years.

McCain's Green Thumb

The Green Revolution is no longer a one-party issue. Today John McCain became the first republican presidential candidate to talk about the environment, global warming, and carbon emmissions. I think that this is long overdue. Regardless of how much of the global warming talk you believe, we can all agree that black skies are a bad things. We don't want to breath it, we don't want to screw up the Earth.

Interestingly enough, McCain and Obama have practically the exact same plan when it comes to the environment.

McCain's plan is available here.
Obama's can be read here.

The fundamental part of both their plans is what's known as a "cap and trade" program. Here's an example:

I own a factory that spews 10 tons of carbon into the air per year.
You own a factory that spews 15 tons of carbon into the air per year.

The government sets a limit of 8 tons per year. My factory is relatively new, so with a few minor adjustments, it now only spews 5 tons of carbon per year. Yours is another story, it is very inefficient, so you can only get it to 11 tons per year.

The new law would allow me to sell you 3 tons of carbon per year. This is a great free market policy, despite what many republicans will say. While it could result in some modest price increases, it is the lowest cost solution to cut down on pollution.

Despite the merits of this plan, it will likely be disastrous for McCain. Conservatives have been looking for any issue to attack him on, to paint him as a liberal maverick. This environmental policy has them drooling at the mouth right now. It will also turn off a lot of the back country republicans, who will see McCain as a traitor. I'm not saying these people will vote for Obama, but I think they may not vote at all.

What's up with WV?

One of the last primaries of the season is in West Virginia.  Not a primary that usually has any major impact, this year the state is in the spotlight, even though the impact from their primary will still be minimal.  

Against the grain of most of America, Hillary Clinton leads the polls in WV by 43 points.  Yes, 66% are going towards her, while 23% are going for Obama.  I suspect that the results will show Obama getting 30+% of the vote, as many more Clinton supporters than Obama supporters will stay home on election day, since her chances of winning the nomination are not good.  

That being said, I've tried to figure out exactly what makes WV (and to a lesser extent Kentucky, who holds its primaries on May 20) democrats so different from the rest of America.

West Virginia is one of those states, like Missouri, that isn't quite part of a geographic region of the US.  Despite its breakup from VA during the War Between the States, it does not feel Northern.  Most of it feels like the South crossed with the Rust Belt, which is a pretty accurate description of Appalachia in general, although certain regions (like the Eastern Panhandle) resemble the other states surrounding it.  Unlike most of the South, WV is 93% white.  It is also less college educated than any other state, ranking 50/50, behind Arkansas and Mississippi.  Only 15% of West Virginians hold a bachelor's degree.  One interesting foot note, West Virginia does have a historically black college (West Virginia State), but enrollment is now over 90% white.

I think it would be safe to say, that West Virginia is the densest population of less educated whites in the United States, a demographic that generally supports Hillary.  Add to this mix the fact that West Virginia has the second lowest GDP per capita in the country, and you have a perfect storm for a Clinton supporting state.

I don't think the Wright Controversy, Bittergate, or any of the other recent developments really affect the spread in WV.

All of this is speculation, but I think that rural, small-town mentality allows propaganda to run amok unchecked.  News reports still show many of these voters focusing on the whole "Obama is a Muslim" bullshit.  In order to convince someone that this is not true, you first have to explain to them that Obama did live in Indonesia, which is a Muslim country, but that he went to a public school.  This school obviously had a large Muslim student body, just as a school in the USA will have a large Christian student body, even though it is not religious.  While easy for you and I to comprehend, to someone who has never left his home state and will never have a passport in his life, merely visiting a Muslim country will be viewed with suspicion (unless its for military purposes).  

Citizens of a rural town in West Virginia are unlikely to read up on things online.  One guy might get the bogus email about something bad Obama supposedly did in this past (such as being a Muslim) and he'll tell everyone in his coal mine about it.  Are they going to go online to verify his claim?  Unlikely.  In small towns, rumors run wild.  

And not to knock on the President Pro Tem too much, but West Virginia has elected a former Klansman to the senate since 1959.  It seems plausible that Senator Byrd has since changed his mind on race, but have the people who elected him?  Do they spend their time reading about the bills he's voted on?  Or do they remember him to be the good 'ole boy who kept those blacks in their place during the 60s?

Lastly, to a small town voter, some of Obama's rhetoric may be depressing.  They hear about us improving our image around the world.  They will never leave their county, so these types of issues don't matter to them.  They hear Obama talk about bringing the races together when all that matters to them is their coal mine going out of business.  They hear a candidate talk about cutting spending on wasteful pork, when that wasteful pork is what pays for many of the rural services they use on a daily basis.

It is easy to forget about Appalachia.  It is a sparsely populated piece of America that most of us just pass through.  What we all should do though, is reach out to these fellow citizens where we can and share with them our vision of America.  It is only through our mutual understanding of each other that we can truly help some of our neglected states.

Upcoming Primary: WV

Hillary Clinton likes to tout her advantage among "hard-working" Americans.  I'm not quite sure what hard-working means, but she's said many times that the people of West Virginia fall into this group.

I think we could agree that people who work harder than average would be more likely to produce more goods and services.  To wit, we can look at the GDP of West Virginia in comparison to the rest of the United States.  I looked up the GDP per capita (per person) for the state, and found that it was 2nd to last, ahead of only Mississippi.  

That means that the people in WV produce less goods and services than 48/50 states (and less than DC).  Hard-working my ass.

Yet another reason to leave Iraq

The only way we can stay is if we keep paying Blackwater hundreds of millions of dollars to act as mercenaries in Iraq.  Blackwater is based in North Carolina and employers formal soldiers.  Its soldiers are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year, and are immune from any prosecution.  They can kill, rape, etc. and not get in trouble.  Last year they did just that, kill a bunch of innocent people.  No charges were filed.

Why?

Courtesy of the NYT:

"State Department officials said Friday that they did not believe they had any alternative to Blackwater, which supplies about 800 guards to the department to provide security for diplomats in Baghdad. Officials say only three companies in the world meet their requirements for protective services in Iraq, and the other two do not have the capability to take on Blackwater’s role in Baghdad. After the shooting in September, the State Department did not even open talks with the other two companies, DynCorp International and Triple Canopy, to see if they could take over from Blackwater, which is based in North Carolina.

“We cannot operate without private security firms in Iraq,” said Patrick F. Kennedy, the under secretary of state for management. “If the contractors were removed, we would have to leave Iraq.”

I think that last line says it all.

Israel Turns 60

This week is the 60th anniversary of the founding of Israel.  Israel declared independence (mainly) from the British.  I don't take much stock in what's written in the Bible, as far as burning bushes, big floods, stuff like that.  It's pretty clear, however, that the Jewish religion started out there, and the followers of that religion are likely the first to have organized government there.  

Did people live in the land of Israel (ancient Palestine) before the Jews?  Of course.  Neanderthals and various early human tribes lived there, but it would be tough to call that a civilization.  Various tribes became more advanced, such as the Canaanites, but these were still polytheistic religions that were generally organized into city-states.  These early tribes and their beliefs eventually evolved into Judaism, which would be the dominant monotheistic religion until Christianity broke away.

Enough with the religion.  Bottom line: Israel was settled by the Jews, who formed the civilization, built the temples, etc.  This fact, and not the Bible, is the strongest reason why the Jewish people should lay claim to the land, just as the Chinese and Japanese can lay claim to their land.  

Besides the Jews, others have also controlled Israel, such as the Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, etc.  But the Jews were the originals, so the Arab claim to Israel is about as valid as the Italian (Roman) claim.  The only difference is that they live closer by.  So maybe its like the French wanting a piece of Germany.

So 60 years ago, Israel achieved its independence from the British and many Jews who were displaced by WWII and holocaust survivors found a new place to call home.  

The root of the current turmoil is that the British and United Nations were very weak and unable to keep the peace, so skirmishes broke out that continue to this day.

Since 1948, Israel has survived countless bombings, wars, and international condemnation.  Israel remains the only truly civilized country in the Middle East.  The fact that Israel has stood the test of time by not only surviving, but prospering in spite of being surrounded by hostile forces gives a legitimacy to the country that is even more persuasive than a religious text.

As with any other country, Israel is not perfect.  Its form of government, the parliament system, is conducive to a revolving door of leaders.  Israel has alternated between left and right wing governments 8 times since 1948.  It would be going overboard to say that the government is unstable, but the styles of leadership can vary greatly, such as a switch from a Benjamin Netanyahu (think Dick Cheney) to Ehud Barak (think Jimmy Carter).  These changes can make it difficult to broker peace agreements.  Of course, the other side is much, much worse when it comes to its leaders.

Israel is now the only true democracy in the region and an important ally of the United States.  We know that Israel would likely stop any threat (like Iran) before it got out of control.  They are the night watchman of the Middle East.  However, these close ties between the US and Israel can be problematic.  When Israel kills Arab civilians, some of the anger gets directed at the US.  Likewise, when we invaded Iraq, some of the anger got sent to Israel.  

Israel should continue on its own course.  We must remember that it is a young country, much younger than the United States and that perfection is something that no country will ever achieve.  

Happy birthday Israel.

The trickle is becoming a stream...

...and will soon be a wave.  Obama picked up 9 supers today.  Clinton got 1, maybe 2.  

This thing should be officially over in 2 weeks.

An affair at the White House

Interestingly enough, it happened before Clinton got in to office.

McCain's backroom land deal

Trading campaign contributions for legislation is not ethical.  Looks like Mr. Ethics just took a hit.

Age is one issue McCain should fear

Today Barack Obama said the McCain is "losing his bearings" as he pursues his nomination, meaning that he is becoming more of a hardcore conservative who uses negative attacks on his opponents to placate the neocon goons.  

McCain's campaign, instead of just being quiet, does the worst possible thing: they said that Obama is now unfairly attacking McCain's age.  

First, let's start with the facts.

Obama said that McCain is "losing his bearings" not "losing his marbles."  One of them relates to his politics, the other to his age.  Obama did not insult his age.  But age is an issue.  

If elected president, McCain would be 72 years, 4 months, and 22 days old on inauguration day.  For comparisons, Ronald Reagan was just a few days shy of his 70th birthday.  

The average age of onset for Alzheimer's is 72.8 years.  

Despite the fact that his mother is still alive and in her 90's, women live longer than men.  His father died at 70 years old, and his grandfather died at 61.

McCain would be the oldest elected president ever, and I think that is not something we can afford in this world.

Is Hillary Delusional or trying to help Obama?

With all the twists and turns this election has taken, you would think this could be a pitch for a new soap opera.  At least, that's what the media has led us to believe.  Truth is, Obama locked up this win with the streak of victories after Super Tuesday, it's just that the media is finally coming to the reality that every contest has a loser.

Meet the loser.

Many commentators think that Hillary is just plain nuts.  She's lent her campaign millions of dollars, is using Huckabee-esque math to make her case, and says she won't stop til she's in the White House again.  Doesn't matter that the math won't work out, she'll just steal that election, even by including states that broke the rules.  On the surface she sure as hell seems crazy.

But I don't think she's crazy.

For the first time, I actually see a plan within her campaign to unite the party around Obama.  The whole "tie breaker" comment about Indiana was just a cheap jab, I don't think she believes it except in the context that she won 2 out of the 3 last states.

If she drops out now and just fades back into the Senate, her supporters will be left twisting in the wind, especially those in places like WV and KY who haven't voted yet (who cares about PR, they don't count).  Most will reluctantly follow Obama.  But about 25-30% of them will either not vote or vote for McCain.  And many of these defectors are in PA, OH and other swing states.  The Dems really need these states, and possibly FL to win in November.  Hillary knows this.  Obama knows this.  

If she closes out WV and KY, let's those people give her a big win, she at least allows them to feel that they are a part of something.  Her efforts to bring FL and MI back into the mix would bring back some goodwill.  If they are not seated at the convention, I believe that FL will definitely be lost.  If she helps pass something through that gives them some kind of delegate mix (maybe half the delegates) they will at least feel that their party did not let them down.  

After winning WV and KY, getting FL and MI involved in the process, it will be time for Hillary to step down.  This will happen in early June and it will probably be a "suspension" of the campaign, much like Edwards, not a formal concession.  But between now and then she needs to stop all negative attacks on Obama, ramp up her attack dog style attacks on McCain, and gradually fade into an advisor type role to the party.

I think that this is her ultimate plan, because if she does not do this her senate career could be toast.  Destroying Obama will not help her in 4 years, even if McCain wins, but in 8 years she'll still be barely young enough to run for president.  

Or I could be completely wrong: she's nuts and she's taking this thing to the convention floor.  But I hope I'm right.  Is that audacious?  

Hillary's Broke

News reports are coming in now that she loaned her campaign an additional $6.4 million this past month.  Add that to the $5 million she loaned herself several months ago.  Add that to the $10M in debt she has.  Part of that is owed to her former campaign manager, who ran her campaign into the ground.

 

She spent what little cash she had in a wasted campaign in NC.

 

To all of the Hillary supporters out there: Do you really want us to elect a president who can't manager her own campaign finances?

Obama wins big

NC is going to be a double-digit win for Obama.

Indiana is going to be very, very close.  Clinton and her backers projected a huge win for her here.

Its time for Hillary to drop out.

NIN releases free CD

Today Nine Inch Nails released a totally free CD today.  Trent Reznor has been trying his damnedest to say "fuck you" to the record labels.  Last year he told people in Australia to "steal my album" because of the overpricing.  So now he just bypasses the labels and allows you to download his albums, 100% free and 100% legal.

I haven't listened to the whole thing yet, but so far The Slip sounds pretty good. 

It can be downloaded here.